Introduction to Discrete & Continuous Probability Distributions

  ✅ 1. What is a Probability Distribution? A probability distribution describes how probabilities are distributed over the values of a random variable . Random Variable : A variable whose values are outcomes of a random phenomenon. ๐Ÿงฎ 2. Types of Probability Distributions Type Description GIS Example Discrete           Takes countable values  Number of landslides per year in a          valley Continuous          Takes infinite values over an                 interval Rainfall (mm), elevation, temperature  ๐Ÿ“Œ Discrete Probability Distributions ๐ŸŽฏ 3. Binomial Distribution ✅ Definition : Used when an experiment is repeated n times , and each trial has two outcomes : success or failure. ✅ Conditions : Fixed number of trials (n) Only two possible outcomes per trial (success/failure) Constant probability of success (p) Trials are in...

Common Logical Fallacies

 

๐Ÿ” What is a Logical Fallacy?

A logical fallacy is a flaw in reasoning that weakens an argument. Fallacies often seem persuasive at first glance but do not hold up under scrutiny.

Understanding fallacies helps students:

  • Analyse arguments critically

  • Avoid faulty reasoning in research and decision-making

  • Make ethical, evidence-based choices in science and policy

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๐Ÿ“œ 1. Ad Hominem (Personal Attack)

Definition:

Attacking the person making the argument rather than the argument itself.

๐Ÿ„ Animal Science Example:
“Don't trust his view on livestock nutrition—he’s not even a vet!”

๐Ÿ’ฐ Economics Example:
“Of course she supports higher taxes—she’s a rich economist!”

Avoid by: Focusing on evidence, not personal characteristics.

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๐Ÿ“œ 2. Straw Man Fallacy

Definition:

Misrepresenting someone’s argument to make it easier to attack.

๐Ÿ Animal Science:
Scientist: “We should reduce antibiotic use.”
Critic: “So you're saying we should let animals die from disease?”

๐Ÿ“‰ Economics:
Economist: “We need to regulate the market.”
Critic: “You want to destroy capitalism!”

Avoid by: Responding to what was actually said, not a twisted version.

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๐Ÿ“œ 3. Appeal to Authority

Definition:

Believing something is true just because an expert or authority says so.

๐Ÿ„ Animal Science:
“Well, this breeder says this diet works, so it must be right.”

๐Ÿ“Š Economics:
“A Nobel laureate said this policy is good—no need to question it.”

Avoid by: Asking why the claim is valid, not just who made it.

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๐Ÿ“œ 4. False Dilemma (Either/Or Fallacy)

Definition:

Presenting only two choices when more exist.

๐Ÿ“ Animal Science:
“Either we use chemicals, or we lose the entire poultry industry.”

๐Ÿ’ผ Economics:
“Either we cut taxes or we face economic collapse.”

Avoid by: Considering alternative options or middle grounds.

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๐Ÿ“œ 5. Hasty Generalization

Definition:

Drawing a conclusion based on insufficient or biased evidence.

๐Ÿ‘ Animal Science:
“This one sheep had twins. So all sheep must have twins!”

๐Ÿ’น Economics:
“My cousin’s business failed after a price increase—price hikes kill all small businesses.”

Avoid by: Using representative data and adequate sample size.

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๐Ÿ“œ 6. Post Hoc (False Cause)

Definition:

Assuming that because one thing happened after another, it was caused by it.

๐Ÿฎ Animal Science:
“After we changed the feed, the cow got sick. The feed must be the cause.”

๐Ÿ“ˆ Economics:
“The economy grew after the new mayor took office. The mayor caused the growth.”

Avoid by: Looking for evidence of causation, not just correlation.

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๐Ÿ“œ 7. Slippery Slope

Definition:

Assuming one step will inevitably lead to a chain of negative events.

๐Ÿ” Animal Science:
“If we let chickens roam, next we’ll have them sleeping in our beds!”

๐Ÿ’ธ Economics:
“If we increase the minimum wage, soon businesses will all shut down!”

Avoid by: Evaluating each step individually, not assuming worst-case spirals.

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๐Ÿ“œ 8. Circular Reasoning (Begging the Question)

Definition:

The conclusion is just a restatement of the premise.

๐Ÿท Animal Science:
“Why is this feed the best? Because it’s better than the others!”

๐Ÿฆ Economics:
“Free markets work best because they’re more efficient than any other system.”

Avoid by: Providing external reasons or evidence, not repeating the claim.

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๐Ÿ“œ 9. Red Herring

Definition:

Introducing irrelevant information to distract from the real issue.

๐Ÿด Animal Science:
“Instead of discussing disease control, let’s talk about how farmers are overworked.”

๐Ÿ’ฐ Economics:
“Why debate inflation when the national football team just won?”

Avoid by: Staying focused on the actual topic.

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๐Ÿ“œ 10. Appeal to Emotion

Definition:

Using emotion in place of logic or evidence.

๐Ÿ‘ Animal Science:
“How could you not support this animal feed brand—it has a picture of a sad lamb on the label!”

๐Ÿง“ Economics:
“We must support this policy—think of our poor grandparents!”

Avoid by: Supporting decisions with facts, not just feelings.

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๐Ÿ“Š Summary Table of Fallacies

FallacyDefinitionAnimal Science ExampleEconomics Example
Ad HominemAttack the person, not the argument"He’s not a vet.""She’s rich, so her policy is biased."
Straw ManMisrepresenting an argument“You want animals to die?”“You hate capitalism?”
Appeal to AuthorityBelieving because an expert said so“The breeder said so.”“A laureate said so.”
False DilemmaOnly two extreme options“Use chemicals or lose animals.”“Cut taxes or collapse.”
Hasty GeneralizationConclusion from limited data“All sheep have twins.”“One price hike = all fail.”
Post HocFalse cause from sequence“New feed → sick cow.”“New mayor → growth.”
Slippery SlopeOne step = disaster“Free-range → chaos.”“Wage rise → closures.”
Circular ReasoningRestating the claim“Best because it’s better.”“Markets work because they’re efficient.”
Red HerringIrrelevant distraction“Farmers are tired.”“Let’s talk about sports.”
Appeal to EmotionUsing feelings, not facts“Sad animal picture.”“Think of grandma!”

๐Ÿง  Why This Matters in Your Field

In Animal ScienceIn Economics
For evaluating research and avoiding bias           For policy design and market analysis
To defend ethical animal practices          To develop sound economic arguments
To assess arguments in farming & vet debates          To avoid propaganda in media and politics
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๐Ÿ’ฌ Final Thought

“A good scientist or economist doesn’t just know what to say—they know how to think.”

Understanding fallacies is key to becoming a strong thinker, better researcher, and more informed decision-maker.


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