Introduction to Discrete & Continuous Probability Distributions

  ✅ 1. What is a Probability Distribution? A probability distribution describes how probabilities are distributed over the values of a random variable . Random Variable : A variable whose values are outcomes of a random phenomenon. ๐Ÿงฎ 2. Types of Probability Distributions Type Description GIS Example Discrete           Takes countable values  Number of landslides per year in a          valley Continuous          Takes infinite values over an                 interval Rainfall (mm), elevation, temperature  ๐Ÿ“Œ Discrete Probability Distributions ๐ŸŽฏ 3. Binomial Distribution ✅ Definition : Used when an experiment is repeated n times , and each trial has two outcomes : success or failure. ✅ Conditions : Fixed number of trials (n) Only two possible outcomes per trial (success/failure) Constant probability of success (p) Trials are in...

Propositional Logic and Its Applications

 

๐Ÿงฉ 1. Propositions

๐Ÿ” Definition:

A proposition is a statement that is either true or false, but not both.

๐Ÿ„ Animal Science Example:
"The cow is ruminant." → ✅ Proposition (It can be verified as true or false)

๐Ÿ’น Economics Example:
"Increasing taxes always decreases consumer spending." → ✅ Proposition (It has a truth

value, though we may debate its accuracy)

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๐Ÿšซ Not Propositions:

  • Questions: “Is the cow healthy?”

  • Commands: “Increase the price!”

These cannot be judged as true or false, so they are not propositions.


๐Ÿ”— 2. Arguments (Valid and Invalid)

๐Ÿ” Definition:

An argument is a series of propositions where:

  • One or more are premises (assumed to be true)

  • One is a conclusion
    The goal: check whether the conclusion logically follows from the premises.

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Valid Argument

If the conclusion logically follows from the premises.

Example (Animal Science):

  • Premise 1: All poultry need clean water.

  • Premise 2: These birds are poultry.

  • ➡️ Conclusion: These birds need clean water.
    Valid


Invalid Argument

If the conclusion doesn’t logically follow, even if the premises are true.

Example (Economics):

  • Premise 1: Inflation is high.

  • Premise 2: High inflation causes reduced purchasing power.

  • ➡️ Conclusion: The government caused the inflation.
    Invalid (The premises don’t justify this conclusion — it adds extra information.)

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๐Ÿ”„ 3. Logical Connectives (Operators)

Logical connectives are tools used to combine propositions.

SymbolNameMeaningExample
Conjunction      AND    Cows are ruminants ∧ Cows produce milk
Disjunction     OR    Goat is vaccinated ∨ Sheep is vaccinated
¬Negation     NOT  ¬(The poultry is infected)
Implication     IF...THEN      If inflation rises → Savings fall
Biconditional       IF AND ONLY IF    An animal is fertile ↔ It can reproduce


๐Ÿงฎ 4. Truth Tables

A truth table shows all possible truth values of compound propositions.

๐Ÿ”˜ Example: Conjunction (AND)

Let

  • P = "Cow is ruminant"

  • Q = "Cow produces milk"

PQ     P ∧ Q
T             T              T
T       F       F
F       T              F
F       F       F

๐Ÿ‘‰ AND is only true when both are true.

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๐Ÿ”˜ Example: Implication (IF...THEN)

Let

  • P = "Feed quality improves"

  • Q = "Animal health improves"

P       Q             P → Q
T            T                T
T       F                 F
F       T                 T
F       F                  T

๐Ÿ‘‰ The only false case is when the first is true but the second is false.


๐Ÿ” 5. Propositional Equivalences

Some compound propositions are logically equivalent — they always have the same truth value.

⚖️ Common Equivalences:

NameEquivalenceMeaning
Double Negation                       ¬(¬P) ≡ PNot not P is just P
De Morgan's Law                 ¬(P ∧ Q) ≡ ¬P ∨ ¬QNot both → Either not
Contrapositive                 P → Q ≡ ¬Q → ¬PFlip and negate
Distributive Law              P ∧ (Q ∨ R) ≡ (P ∧ Q) ∨ (P ∧ R)        Distribute like algebra

๐Ÿงช Example in Animal Science:

Let

  • P: The cattle are vaccinated

  • Q: The cattle are healthy

Then:
¬(P ∧ Q) ≡ ¬P ∨ ¬Q
→ "The cattle are not both vaccinated and healthy" is the same as "They are not vaccinated OR not healthy."

๐Ÿ“ˆ Example in Economics:

Let

  • P: "Subsidy is increased"

  • Q: "Production rises"
    Then:
    P → Q ≡ ¬Q → ¬P
    → If increasing subsidies leads to more production, then if production doesn’t rise, subsidies likely weren’t increased.

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๐Ÿ”„ Summary Chart

ConceptPurposeExample (Animal Science)Example (Economics)
PropositionsIdentify true/false statements“The goat is healthy.”“GDP is growing.”
ArgumentsEvaluate logical structure"All hens lay eggs → This is a hen → ?"“Taxes reduce demand → Taxes rose → ?”
ConnectivesCombine/mix statements logicallyCow is healthy ∧ Cow is fed wellMarket is stable ∨ Govt is intervening
Truth TablesAnalyze compound statements truthfullyIf animal eats → animal growsIf inflation rises → savings fall
EquivalencesRecognize interchangeable forms for simplification¬(Cow is sick ∧ cow is hungry) ≡ …¬(Govt acts ∧ economy reacts) ≡ …

๐Ÿง  Why This Matters

Animal ScienceEconomics
Designing and interpreting research          Building sound economic models
Diagnosing health or behavioural issues          Evaluating cause-effect in markets
Making ethical decisions about interventions         Communicating policy logic
Avoiding flawed reasoning in claims          Avoiding bias and fallacies in predictions

๐Ÿ’ฌ Final Thought:

“Clear reasoning is the foundation of good science and policy.”

Logical thinking doesn’t just make you smarter — it helps you ask better questions, make informed decisions, and avoid being misled.


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